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The fiscal year 2001-2002 had finished for the 3rd consecutive year, by a
contraction of the GDP and principal components of the total request. This
context had helped the monetary posture adopted by the BRH to reach a
deceleration of the rate of inflation falling with 10,07% against 12,34% in 2001
in annual rate/rhythm. However, uncertainties of the socio-economic economic
situation and the accumulation of the tax deficit had involved a depreciation of
approximately 16% of the gourd finishing with 29 gourds for one (1) dollar E.U.
On the basis of these report, the monetary authorities had started 2003 with the
objective to lead a restrictive monetary policy by anticipating the effects on
the financing of the BRH of the maintenance of freezing of the external
assistance. They heard in same time to supervise the impact of the subsequent
raising of the interest rates on the financial health of the banks and the
quality of their wallet measured by a ratio of unproductive of 6,5% at the end
of September 2002.
During the fiscal year 2002-2003, the monetary policy was led in an unfavourable
environment characterized by the aggravation of pessimistic anticipations from
the economic and financial point of view in a context where the deterioration of
fundamental of the economy induced mainly by the imbalance of the finance public
and the economic situation socio-policy was likely to reduce the full
effectiveness of the action of the BRH.
Indeed, as of the first quarter, of the effects of advertisement related to the
rumours of conversion forced into gourds of the deposits in dollars in the
banking structure caused a strong volatility of the rate of exchange which had
reached 55 gourds for a dollar É.U in November 2002 against 29 gourds at the end
of September 2002. At the beginning of the year 2003, the rate of exchange,
being again depreciated, and the shock of the relative price, caused by the
application by the government of a flexible mechanism of fixing to the pump of
the prices of the petroleum products, generated a strong acceleration of the
rate of inflation which passed in annual slip of 10% in September 2002 to
approximately 28% in January and 42,46 % at the end of September 2003.
The response of the BRH to these shocks was, on the one hand, to engage a
communication campaign to counter the rumours which fed uncertainties of the
economic agents; and in addition to raise the interest rates on the good BRH
[1], in coherence with the initial objective of tightening of the monetary
conditions have regard with the need for neutralizing the effects of the rapid
progression of the deficit of the Treasury and to the advisability of giving a
certain attractivity to the gourd.
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Intermediate results
The recourse of the Treasury to the financing of the BRH induced an expansion of
37,38% of the monetary base compared to September 2002 against 17,2% the
preceding exercise, according to a monthly average growth of 2,72%. The growth
of the latter during the second half of 2003 was 18% exceeding first half of the
year of 2 points of percentage, resulting primarily from the progression from
approximately 6% over 6 months of the credit to the central government. The
evolution of the monetary base reflects, in the passive, the increase in annual
rate/rhythm from approximately 26,9% of the currency in circulation and of more
than 45% of the reserves of the banks including an increase in 40,9% of the good
BRH
The deposits of the banks increased by 48,83% on the exercise against 13% in
2002. This growth comes from the increase of 32% of the deposits in gourds and
41,51% of the rate of exchange, the return and the increase in the deposits in
dollars in the system after the crisis of the first quarter
With the credit of the base, the advances with the Treasury increased by 24,31%
between September 2002 and September 2003 to change to 18.772, 7 MG [2] the
credits on the Police headquarters, representing thus more than 76% of the
counterparts of the monetary base. The assets external Nets of the central Bank
grew of 31,37% thus reflecting its efforts for the reconstitution of the
definite reservations of exchange.
The growth of the currency in circulation was established with 26,9% and that of
the sight deposits to 24,68%. It is resulted from it a progression from 26% of
the M1 aggregate. The money supply m2 increased by 29,3%, that is to say a
rate/rhythm faster than M1 because of the significant increase in 32% in
near-money. On the other hand the progression of m3 was 39,75% because of the
rise of the value in gourd of its component dollar. Indeed, the depreciation of
41,51% of the gourd in September 2003 [3] made increase by 57,51% the deposits
in dollars expressed in gourds, whereas not converted, these deposits increased
only by 11,31%.
The credit with the private sector grew of 33,38% over one year, while that
granted to the public sector grew of 24,3%. Most of the rise in the credit to
the private sector can be allotted to its component dollar which, under the
effect of the rate of exchange, amounted to 43,38% whereas not converted, it
increased only by 3,2%.
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Final results
The posture adopted by the BRH made it possible to obtain notable results in
second half of the year, period during which a financial program was discussed
with the International Monetary Funds International Monetary and set up by the
tax and monetary authorities. These results relate primarily to the stability of
the exchange which evolved/moved between 41,5 and 43,25 gourds, the deceleration
of the rate of inflation in monthly rate/rhythm falling from 13% in January 2003
to 1,74% at the end of the exercise and the re-establishment of confidence in
the banking structure expressed by a return of the deposits in dollar which
added up 530 million at September 30, 2003 against 460 million one year before.
Short-term orientation
Considering the results obtained during the six-month period April-September
2003 are on line with the program relay followed by the services of the IMF and
that the negotiations were taken again with the principal financial backers, the
BID in particular, following the payment of the arrears, the central Bank will
attempt to lead a careful monetary policy and to play its partition so that the
respect of the quantitative criteria stopped for the 2nd six-month period of
this program can lead to a programme of reduction of poverty likely to
contribute to start again the economy on the way of the durable growth.
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